Oscar Watch: How Golden Globe Nominations Affect Academy Awards

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The Golden Globe nominations have been revealed, and although this year there are few surprises, it does do a fantastic job of putting what is one of the most challenging Oscar seasons of recent memory further into focus. Of course, with the Golden Globes breaking its major film acting awards into two categories, Drama and Comedy or Musical, it does simultaneously muddle it up a bit!

Oscars Picture

Our latest Oscar Watch looks through the nominations list and gives you the big picture on how the Golden Globes will affect the Oscar race.

We’re not sure why American Hustle was placed in the Best Motion Picture Comedy or Musical category. It is neither a musical nor a fall-on-the-floor funny film. That move probably allowed Ron Howard’s Rush to sneak into the Best Motion Picture Drama category, and although it is that good of a movie, it is not quite award nomination worthy.

Oscar, with its relatively new rules, can award up to 10 films for Best Picture, and we believe that 2013 is a year that will warrant such a long list. As such, all 10 of the comedy/musical and drama nominees for the Golden Globes could make it, although there will likely be others that Oscar likes that the Hollywood Foreign Press skipped.

12 Years a Slave and American Hustle have to be your favorites, but we would add Gravity, Her (which won the National Board of Review award for Best Picture) and The Wolf of Wall Street to the contender list. Some felt that by not receiving SAG nominations, Inside Llewyn Davis suffered, but we disagree. It’s the Coen brothers and Oscar loves them, so count that folk music celebration of a movie in for a Best Picture nod. And some may have felt that Captain Phillips has slipped a bit in the Oscar race, but its Golden Globe nomination for Best Drama all but secures its place when Academy Award nominations are handed out in mid-January.

Sandra Bullock Stars in Gravity

If there is one surprise to the Best Picture nods for the Golden Globes, it is a welcome one. Seeing Philomena on this list is well-deserved and warranted. Judi Dench, of course, got her nomination and she will too come Oscar time, but Best Motion Picture – Drama for Philomena… well done!

Where things get muddled truly is the acting categories. Best Picture for Oscar gets ten spots, as we mentioned, and there are 10 nominees at the Golden Globes. But by splitting up the Drama and Comedy/Musical categories for the actors, we have 10 potential nominees and only five spots to vie for Oscar gold.

Golden Globe nominees Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine, Sandra Bullock for Gravity, Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks and Judi Dench for Philomena are all locks for an Oscar nod. And we’re thinking the last spot will be fought over between the “Comedy” nominees, either Meryl Streep for August: Osage County or Amy Adams for American Hustle. If we had to bet, we’d put the money on Streep.

Best Actor at this year’s Oscar is by far the most challenging and competitive race of the year. Things were made more complicated by the nominations today from the Golden Globes. We’d say there are locks: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave, Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club and Robert Redford for All is Lost.

Dallas Buyers Club Jared Leto Matthew McConaughey

The mystery will be whether the remaining two spots will go to Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. Oscar loves Hanks, and they love awarding actors for playing Hollywood royalty, as Hanks does with his turn as Walt Disney. So, he might score for Saving Mr. Banks. But, there’s a complication… he’s equally good as the title character in Captain Phillips. Oscar Watch thinks Hanks may cancel himself out!

Idris Elba has to be on the list, in our opinion. His turn as Nelson Mandela was uncanny in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, and with added interest in the biopic since Mandela’s death, look for Elba to take that fourth spot. And finally, the Academy loves a comeback and who better to embody that this year than Bruce Dern in Nebraska.

Two things truly stand out in the Supporting Acting categories, and one is the inclusion of Captain Phillips star Barkhad Abdi. He recently received a SAG nomination in the same category, and although we thought so when the film arrived, it looks like the first time film actor will score a Best Supporting Actor nomination come Oscar time! The other is the rightful and surprise inclusion of Rush’s Daniel Bruhl. He is astounding in that movie and deserves to hear his name called when Oscar nods are handed out. 

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