Oscar Watch: Predicting Best Supporting Actor

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When it comes to this year's Best Supporting Actor category at the Oscars, look for those 12 nominations for Lincoln to create a wave for Tommy Lee Jones that no one else can catch. As soon as the Academy Award nominations were announced, Movie Fanatic knew this was Jones' to lose.

This week's Oscar Watch delves deeper into the five nominated Supporting Actors and explores why each has a shot... or doesn't!

Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln

The front runner has to be Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. His turn as Thaddeus Stevens, the abolitionist legislator that became an unlikely ally with President Lincoln, was nothing short of a miracle. Then, his performance was made all the more powerful by the ending of the film -- a reveal that made his character's journey all the more searing.

Sure, he has yet to take home a trophy in this category in all the previous award shows this year, but then again, Lincoln hasn't cleaned house either. Believe Movie Fanatic when we tell you that come Oscar night, the Steven Spielberg love letter to our greatest president will clean house.

If there's anyone who can beat Jones in this category come February 24, it is Robert De Niro for his best performance in a decade -- as reported in our Silver Linings Playbook review. His role as the Philadelphia Eagles-loving father to Bradley Cooper's recovering mental patient is a study in subtlety meets steely paternal love. The entire film is a celebration and the sparks between De Niro and Cooper are still popping in our heads, months after witnessing the film. One could argue that Cooper has his first nomination for Best Actor, due to his volley partner in De Niro.

Alan Arkin has won before, and the Academy adores the legendary actor. But his nomination for his work in Argo will have to be enough this year. If anything, his co-star John Goodman probably deserved the nod as much if not more, and would perhaps be grasping a trophy Oscar night if he had managed to get nominated. Oh well John, maybe next year!

As stated in our The Master review, the film is an acting clinic and although the movie wasn't as solid as we'd hoped, performances such as Philip Seymour Hoffman's put it over the top from mediocre to pretty good. He won't win for the film, but his nomination only clearly makes our point further that the film was a lesson in great acting as his nod is joined by Best Actor nominee Joaquin Phoenix and Best Supporting Actress Amy Adams.

Christoph Waltz Django Unchained

A previous winner in this category, Christoph Waltz, scored another nomination for his incredible work in Django Unchained. The last time he appeared in a Quentin Tarantino movie he took home the gold. Unfortunately this time, there is too much competition, although we would argue that his turn as the eve of the Civil War-era bounty hunter is even more searing than his turn in Inglourious Basterds. As he clearly stated in our Christoph Waltz interview, the man treasures working with Tarantino and look for him to return to the filmmaker's world and for that matter, the Oscar stage!

Well, there you have it... Supporting Actor Oscar predicted. Next week, Oscar Watch looks at the ladies nominated for Best Supporting Actress.

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